Early results from InUnison’s first 2025 Holiday Sales Survey reveal a softer start to the season for many local businesses, even as national headlines highlight strong early shopping driven by steep discounts and big-box retailers pulling demand forward. Richmond-area independents are seeing a different reality: lower early-season revenue, lighter foot traffic, and customer behavior that looks much like last year.

“It doesn’t feel like it’s quite started yet.”

More than 44% of businesses report lower revenue and 44% report lower foot traffic compared to this time in 2024, and 78% say customers are starting their holiday shopping at about the same time as last year. This indicates that local businesses are not yet capturing the early deal-driven spending that appears to be lifting national retail numbers.

A few respondents noted unusual fluctuations — strong days followed by sudden slow periods — suggesting that volatility, not a steady decline, may be defining this year’s early-season pattern. Others mentioned that even their most reliable regular customers are visiting less frequently or spending more cautiously, reflecting broader uncertainty.

“Customers who once came in 2–3 times a week are now coming every 1–2 weeks.”

Where Sales Are Happening: In-Store Dominates

Despite more tools and technology than ever, online sales still haven’t materialized for most local businesses, who remain overwhelmingly dependent on in-store shopping. Nearly 70% of respondents reported that online revenue made up none or only a small portion of early-season sales, while very few saw meaningful activity through websites or social marketplaces.

“Online sales continue to be a challenge for us.”

This stands in contrast to trends some retailers elsewhere are experiencing, but those digital gains are not playing out universally among independent businesses in our region.

Promotions Mixed, and Many Are Not Running Them

46% of respondents have not offered early-season promotions or events, despite national patterns showing that early discounting is driving demand elsewhere. Those who did host preview parties, community markets, or modest percentage-off events reported mixed turnout, with several noting weaker engagement for annual events that typically perform well.

Top Factors Shaping Early Performance

Businesses continue to point to consumer spending confidence and economic uncertainty/inflation as the largest drivers of softer early results. Weather also appeared in several comments: cooler days helped push customers into stores, while warm stretches delayed typical holiday momentum.

Outlook: Cautious but Hopeful

Despite the mixed start, 57% of businesses remain optimistic or somewhat optimistic about the remainder of the season. Many expect stronger traffic as the season enters its core weeks, and several noted encouraging inquiries for late-season services or early planning for the new year.

“Traffic has been up and down, but when people do come in, they’re spending.”

While early trends point to a more muted beginning for local businesses than national retailers are reporting, the season is far from determined. With most independents relying heavily on November and December, the coming weeks will be key in shaping how the 2025 holiday season ultimately lands for the Richmond region’s local retail, hospitality, and service community.

These results are from the first of three surveys going out to InUnison members across our region. We encourage all of our members to take a few minutes to fill these surveys out so we can help paint the most accurate picture of what’s happening with independent business in Richmond. The next surveys will go out on December 1 and December 22.

Note: Sales and traffic findings reflect only consumer-facing businesses; pure B2B respondents were routed past these questions due to skip logic.